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About 75% of the world's energy consumption takes place in cities. Although their large energy consumption attracts a large number of research projects, only a small fraction of them deal with approaches to model energy systems of city districts. These are particularly complex due to the existence of multiple energy sectors (multi-energy systems, MES), different consumption sectors (mixed-use), and different stakeholders who have many different interests.
This contribution is a review of the characteristics of energy system models and existing modeling tools. It evaluates current studies and identifies typical characteristics of models designed to optimize MES in mixed-use districts. These models operate at a temporal resolution of at least 1 h, follow either bottom-up or hybrid analytical approaches and make use of mixed-integer programming, linear or dynamic.
These characteristics were then used to analyze minimum requirements for existing modeling tools. Thirteen of 145 tools included in the study turned out to be suitable for optimizing MES in mixed-use districts. Other tools where either created for other fields of application (12), do not include any methodology of optimization (39), are not suitable to cover city districts as a geographical domain (44), do not include enough energy or demand sectors (20), or operate at a too coarse temporal resolution (17). If additional requirements are imposed, e.g. the applicability of non-financial assessment criteria and open source availability, only two tools remain.
Overall it can be stated that there are very few modeling tools suitable for the optimization of MES in mixed-use districts.
Rund 75 % des weltweiten Energieverbrauchs findet innerhalb urbaner Energiesysteme statt. Solche Systeme beinhalten mehrere Energiesektoren (Elektrizität, Wärme, Kälte, …), Verbrauchssektoren (Wohnen, Gewerbe, Industrie, Landwirtschaft, Mobilität, …) und Interessensgruppen und sind deshalb besonders komplex. Durch den Einsatz von Methoden der Energiesystemmodellierung können diese komplexen Systeme simuliert, analysiert und optimiert werden. Mit Simulationsmodellen können Kosten, Emissionen und verschiedene andere Systemparameter prognostiziert werden. Mithilfe von Optimierungsalgorithmen können Technologien miteinander verglichen, Anlagen dimensioniert und Betriebsweisen optimiert werden. Die Erkenntnisse aus Energiesystemmodellen können zur Einhaltung verschiedener politischer und sozialer Ziele, wie beispielsweise die Reduktion von Treibhausgasemissionen, der Bedarf nach kostengünstiger Energieversorgung oder auch die Stärkung der regionalen Wirtschaft, beitragen.
Im Projekt R2Q werden Ansätze der Energiesystemmodellierung für den Einsatz in der Planung urbaner Energiesysteme aufgearbeitet, angepasst und für städteplanerische Prozesse verfügbar gemacht. In ersten Modelldurchläufen für ein Testgebiet in Herne konnte durch die Kombination verschiedener Technologien eine rechnerische Minimierung der monetären Kosten um 19 % bei gleichzeitiger Reduktion der CO2-Emissionen um 36 % ermittelt werden. Durch ein emissionsoptimiertes Szenario können die CO2-Emissionen um 47 % reduziert werden, was jedoch mit einer Steigerung der Kosten um 29 % einhergeht.
Heating networks are highly relevant for the achievement of climate protection goals of urban energy systems. This is due to their high renewable energy potential combined with high plant efficiency and utilization rates. For the optimal integration and sector coupling of heating networks in holistic urban energy systems, open source energy system modeling tools are highly recommended. In this contribution, two open source approaches (the "Spreadsheet Energy System Model Generator"-integrated DHNx-Python module (DHNx/SESMG) and Thermos) are theoretically compared, and practically applied to a real-world energy system. Deviations within the results can be explained by incorrectly pre-defined parameters within Thermos and cannot be adjusted by the modeler. The simultaneity is underestimated in the case study by Thermos by more than 20%. This results in undersized heating plant capacities and a 50% higher number of buildings connected to the network. However, Thermos offers a higher end-user usability and over 100 times faster solving. DHNx/SESMG, in contrast, offers the possibility to adjust more model parameters individually and consider multiple energy sectors. This enables a holistic modeling of urban energy systems and the model-based optimization of multi-sectoral synergies.
This study identifies supply options for sustainable urban energy systems, which are robust to external system changes. A multi-criteria optimization model is used to minimize greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and financial costs of a reference system. Sensitivity analyses examine the impact of changing boundary conditions related to GHG emissions, energy prices, energy demands, and population density. Options that align with both financial and emission reduction and are robust to system changes are called “no-regret” options. Options sensitive to system changes are labeled as “potential-risk” options.
There is a conflict between minimizing GHG emissions and financial costs. In the reference case, the emission-optimized scenario enables a reduction of GHG emissions (-93%), but involves higher costs (+160%) compared to the financially-optimized scenario.
No-regret options include photovoltaic systems, decentralized heat pumps, thermal storages, electricity exchange between sub-systems and with higher-level systems, and reducing energy demands through building insulation, behavioral changes, or the decrease of living space per inhabitant. Potential-risk options include solar thermal systems, natural gas technologies, high-capacity battery storages, and hydrogen for building energy supply.
When energy prices rise, financially-optimized systems approach the least-emission system design. The maximum profitability of natural gas technologies was already reached before the 2022 European energy crisis.
Die Transformation der Energiesysteme im Rahmen der Energiewende macht diese durch zusätzliche Komponenten und Wechselwirkungen immer komplexer. Das ökonomische und ökologische Potenzial, dass sich aus der Nutzung der Synergien dieser Komponenten ergeben kann, erfordert eine gemeinsame Betrachtung des gesamten Energiesystems hinsichtlich sämtlicher Energie- und Verbrauchssektoren.
Die Energiesystemmodellierung stellt eine geeignete Methode zur Modellierung und Optimierung dieser urbanen Energiesysteme dar. Mit dem „Spreadsheet Energy System Model Generator“ (SESMG) hat die FH Münster ein Open Source Tool entwickelt, das die Betrachtung urbaner Quartiere ermöglicht. Diese können hinsichtlich verschiedener Zielkriterien wie z. B. monetären Kosten und THG-Emissionen optimiert werden. Die tabellenbasierte Eingabe erfordert keine Programmierkenntnisse. Das implementierte Urban District Upscaling Tool erleichtert die effektive Modellierung auch größerer Systeme. Die automatisierte Ergebnisaufbereitung ermöglicht eine schnelle Analyse der Ergebnisse.