(1) The use of renewable energy for power and heat supply is one of the strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. As only 14% of German households are supplied with renewable energy, a shift is necessary. This shift should be realized with the lowest possible environmental impact. This paper assesses the environmental impacts of changes in energy generation and distribution, by integrating the life cycle assessment (LCA) method into energy system models (ESM). (2) The integrated LCA is applied to a case study of the German neighborhood of Herne, (i) to optimize the energy supply, considering different technologies, and (ii) to determine the environmental impacts of the base case (status quo), a cost-optimized scenario, and a CO2-optimized scenario. (3) The use of gas boilers in the base case is substituted with CHPs, surface water heat pumps and PV-systems in the CO2-optimized scenario, and five ground-coupled heat pumps and PV-systems for the cost-optimized scenario. This technology shift led to a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions of almost 40% in the cost-optimized, and more than 50% in the CO2-optimized, scenario. However, technology shifts, e.g., due to oversized battery storage, risk higher impacts in other categories, such as terrestrial eco toxicity, by around 22%. Thus, it can be recommended to use smaller battery storage systems. (4) By combining ESM and LCA, additional environmental impacts beyond GHG emissions can be quantified, and therefore trade-offs between environmental impacts can be identified. Furthermore, only applying ESM leads to an underestimation of greenhouse gas emissions of around 10%. However, combining ESM and LCA required significant effort and is not yet possible using an integrated software.
This study identifies supply options for sustainable urban energy systems, which are robust to external system changes. A multi-criteria optimization model is used to minimize greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and financial costs of a reference system. Sensitivity analyses examine the impact of changing boundary conditions related to GHG emissions, energy prices, energy demands, and population density. Options that align with both financial and emission reduction and are robust to system changes are called “no-regret” options. Options sensitive to system changes are labeled as “potential-risk” options.
There is a conflict between minimizing GHG emissions and financial costs. In the reference case, the emission-optimized scenario enables a reduction of GHG emissions (-93%), but involves higher costs (+160%) compared to the financially-optimized scenario.
No-regret options include photovoltaic systems, decentralized heat pumps, thermal storages, electricity exchange between sub-systems and with higher-level systems, and reducing energy demands through building insulation, behavioral changes, or the decrease of living space per inhabitant. Potential-risk options include solar thermal systems, natural gas technologies, high-capacity battery storages, and hydrogen for building energy supply.
When energy prices rise, financially-optimized systems approach the least-emission system design. The maximum profitability of natural gas technologies was already reached before the 2022 European energy crisis.